Unexpected and meaningful NPLs in the bank's core markets is one.
According to CLSA, OCBC's macro risks include: continued capital/liquidity/funding regulatory changes, a meaningful macroeconomic shock, subdued domestic and regional loan growth, a prolonged period of low interest rates, disorderly rise in interest rates and competition.
Here's more from CLSA:
Micro risks: unexpected and meaningful NPLs in the bank's core markets (Singapore, Greater China, Indonesia, Malaysia) due to poor credit risk management or an external shock, inability to realise synergies from the Wing Hang or Barclays Wealth acquisitions, pursuit of growth to hold or gain market share despite a challenging liquidity environment/lack of good-quality loan demand, and inability to realise material components of the capital generation plan.
improvement in macro conditions, strong capital generation and better-than-expected asset quality performance.
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