Why HSBC's structural increase in competition is awkwardly timed

Is fresh catalyst lacking?

According to CLSA, a structural increase in competition and an increasingly uncertain medium-run outlook for Hong Kong come at an awkward time for HSBC, as its Hong Kong and China earnings (the latter mostly associate income from Bocom) have increased as a proportion of group earnings.

This makes HSBC more reliant on earnings streams that are under significant medium-term threat.

Here's more from CLSA:

The stickiness of ROE at around the 10-11% level dominates our 12-month view on HSBC, leaving the current price/book ratio of 1.1x about fair value.

Having largely completed its 2.5-year restructure, HSBC lacks a fresh catalyst for performance, leaving investors to wait for the upturn in US-dollar interest rates to produce the long-awaited lift in returns. In the meantime, we see HSBC as fair value, with little absolute or relative upside.

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