Bank Negara Indonesia to see continued NIM pressure in Q2

Loan growth should accelerate in H2 2025.

Bank Negara Indonesia’s (BNI) is expected to see continued net interest margin (NIM) pressure in Q2 2025, although stabilisation is likely for the second half of the year.

The bank’s NIM declined 3.9% in Q1 2025, down 10 basis points (bp) year-on-year and 55bp quarter-on-quarter, driven by softer interest earnings particularly in the corporate segment, according to UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH).

“We expect the NIM compression to extend to Q2 2025, which could prompt management to revise its full-year NIM lower from 4%–4.2% to 4%,” said UOBKH analyst Posmarito Pakpahan.

Loan growth is set to accelerate in the second half of 2025, with management anticipating an improvement in liquidity on the back of higher fiscal disbursement and accommodative measures by the central bank.

Operational expenses are constrained by ongoing digital investment, which surged 33.4% YoY, leading to opex rising 4.3% YoY.