Bank Mandiri’s net profit still down in 9M 2025 but on track with full-year estimates

Next year may see higher loan growth, stable NIM, and opex normalisation.

Bank Mandiri’s net profit rebounded quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q3, although net profit for the first nine months is still lower than the same period in 2024.

Its net profit for the first nine months of 2025 is at IDR37.7t (approximately $2.25b), 10.2% year-on-year (YoY) lower, but within the 74% of full-year estimates, said UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH).

Recovery was supported by a 3.7% QoQ loan growth, a 27% QoQ non-interest income growth from loan-related, trading, and recovery income, and a 1.3% QoQ operating expenses (opex) decline, UOBKH said.

For 2026, Bank Mandiri’s management is optimistic for higher loan growth, stable net interest margin (NIM), and opex normalisation.

Management expects stronger loan growth in Q4 2025, led by the retail segment, and maintains its 2025 loan growth guidance at 8%-10%.

“Loan growth is expected to improve further in 2026 as macro demand and value-chain 
financing recovery,” said UOBKH analyst Posmarito Pakpahan.

NIM is guided to remain stable at 4.8%-5% in 2025, with gradual normalization in 2026 as funding costs ease.

“Opex should also normalise next year, with flat to slightly lower growth and consolidated CIR improving toward 42%,” Pakpahan wrote.

Credit cost (CoC) may also normalise in 2026.

“With reserve buffers (LLR) now at 2.78%, we see room for provisioning to normalise toward the upper end of the 80-100bp guidance range as credit expansion resumes in 2026. Management has not provided any CoC guidance for 2026,” Pakpahan said.

(US$1 = IDR16,726.02; as of 5 November 2025, Morningstar via Google)