Indonesia Big 4 profit grows 9.3% as state banks drive gains

BNI and BCA could take advantage of a high-interest rate environment, said CGSI.

The average net profit growth of Indonesia’s Big 4 banks reached 9.3% year-on-year (YoY) in the first five months of 2026 (5M 2026), according to data from CGS International (CGSI).

The three state-owned enterprises (SOE) banks—Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), Bank Mandiri, and Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI)—posted 111.7% YoY net profit growth during the period.

Loan growth of the SOE banks is 5.4% in 5M 2026 if excluding Agrinas or village cooperative programme loans, compared to 0.75% loan growth in Bank Central Asia (BCA), the only private sector bank amongst the Big 4.

CGSI sees downside risk to the banks’ net interest margin (NIM) guidance should funding costs continue to rise in the upcoming months.

“Our sensitivity calculation suggests that every 10 [basis point (bp)] drop in NIM will affect the Big 4 banks' 2026 net profit by 2-5%,” said CGSI analysts Handy Noverdanius and Owen Tjandra.

Of the Big 4, BCA and BNI are CGSI’s top picks. The two banks have the amplest deposit liquidity and could take advantage of a high-interest rate environment, Noverdanius and Tjandra wrote in a 3 July 2026 report.

Overall, the key banks’ Q2 2026 results should fall within expectations, CGSI said.