SCB X may rein in non-bank finance expansion amidst asset quality concerns

Its commercial bank business is expected to make up the majority of its net profit.

Siam Commercial Bank X (SCB X) is expected to adopt a conservative approach to its non-bank finance businesses in 2026-2028, according to a study by CGS International (CGSI).

“We also believe it will continue with its strategy to derisk its portfolio with 
a focus on cost optimisation and increasing AI capabilities,” CGSI analyst Weerapat Wonk-Urai said in a report on 17 December 2025.

SCB’s share price underperformed in 2025, rising only by 13.6% compared to the SETBank Index rising 16% during the year, which may be due to concerns of asset quality deterioration in the Thai-headquartered bank in 2026, the investment house said.

“We believe the underperformance was due to concerns over SCB turning aggressive on its consumer finance and digital financial services businesses, which could result in asset quality deterioration in 2026F,” Weerapat said.

CGSI’s proprietary study on SCB’s key subsidiaries suggest that it will adopt a more conservative approach to its non-bank finance businesses over the next three years, Weerapat added.

SCB’s commercial bank business is expected to make up 92%-95% of its net profit over this period.

CGSI also cut its earnings per share (EPS) forecast by 6.1%-11.8%, on the back of its lower loan growth estimates of the bank: from a 2% growth for 2026-27F, to 1%-1.5%.