Global banks face slower growth as rate gains fade

JPMorgan remained the revenue leader.

Global banks recorded diverging performances in FY2025 as growth normalised and risks were repriced across major markets, according to GlobalData.

The firm said the sector did not follow a single banking cycle. Russian lenders benefited from wartime interest-rate conditions, Chinese megabanks faced margin compression, US banks largely held their ground, and European lenders posted mixed growth.

JPMorgan Chase remained the revenue leader with US$280b in revenue, although growth slowed to 0.5% YoY from a 17.1% compound annual growth rate since 2021. Its net income slipped 2.4%, whilst assets rose 10.5% to US$4.4t.

GlobalData said a similar trend was seen at Bank of America and Citigroup, where revenue dipped slightly whilst profits improved or stabilised.

The firm said this reflected lingering support from higher interest rates, offset by weaker dealmaking, higher funding costs and normalising trading revenues.

Chinese banks faced a different picture. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China reported revenue declines of 4% to 6.5%, although net income remained steady or rose modestly.

GlobalData attributed this to margin compression from policy easing and lower lending rates, partly offset by cost controls and stable credit performance.

It added that Chinese banks continued to record double-digit asset growth, signalling continued credit support to the domestic economy despite weaker demand.

European lenders showed mixed trajectories. BNP Paribas and Banco Santander posted profit growth of 9.1% and 17.0%, respectively, supported by higher rates in retail banking and geographic diversification. HSBC’s profit fell 7.1%, suggesting normalisation after outsized gains tied to global rate cycles.

Russia’s Sberbank and VTB Bank were standout performers, with revenue growth of 38.9% and 37.4%, respectively.

GlobalData said the surge reflected a rebound from earlier disruptions and a sanctions-driven domestic banking system shaped by state support and limited competition, rather than broad-based efficiency gains.

In Japan, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group reported net income growth of 18.4%, supported by gradual monetary policy normalisation and improved lending margins.

GlobalData said one key trend across the sector was continued asset expansion even where revenue was flat or declining. This suggests banks are still building liquidity and extending credit, but at lower spreads.

The firm said the sector is entering a slower-growth phase as the easy gains from rising rates fade. It expects banks’ next phase of returns to depend more on efficiency, diversification and disciplined risk management rather than macroeconomic tailwinds alone.