OCBC's Q1 net profit expected to decline 4% to around US$586m

Provisions will remain high for the same O&G accounts.

CIMB estimates that OCBC’s 1Q17 core net profit will come in at S$818m (US$586m) (+4% qoq, -4% yoy).

Here's more from CIMB:

We expect NIM to see a slight positive bias, similar to peers, and with loans still largely driven by market share gains in housing loans and crossborder loans. This will likely drive a better NII qoq, though lower yoy.

We expect a recovery in fee income to be driven by the first full quarter of contributions from the integration of Barclays private wealth assets, which added US$13bn in AUM (+20%).

Recall that OCBC saw high property disposal gains of S$83m (US$59m) in 4Q16 from the sale of a 12-storey office building and two shophouses; the absence of these gains likely dragged overall non-NII lower qoq.

We expect provisions to still remain high for the same oil & gas accounts that were already previously identified, though total credit costs could have eased qoq.