CBA credit losses seen steady as debt risks linger: S&P

The bank is vulnerable to housing-related risks.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s (CBA) credit losses are expected to remain low over the next two years even as it remains vulnerable due to household debt and housing prices.

CBA’s credit losses are expected to remain at about 10 bps during the period, said S&P Global Ratings.

“Nonetheless, the bank remains vulnerable to a potential rise in credit losses, given elevated household debt and the tail risk of a sharp correction in house prices,” the ratings agency wrote in a commentary published 11 February 2026.

Under our base-case scenario, S&P anticipates that ongoing supply shortages will support modest house price growth over the next two years.

CBA is expected to maintain its strong credit standing, reportedly underpinned by a “well-executed strategy, low credit losses, and strong capital levels.”

CBA's credit profile and performance have been resilient compared with its Australian major bank peers, which have experienced strategic hurdles, S&P said.

“Moreover, CBA is a leader in technological innovation, including AI, within the global banking sector,” it added.

Regulatory capital levels are expected to remain strong over the next two years.

CBA should also easily meet the upcoming 25 bps increase in its minimum CET1 ratio requirement to 10.5% by 1 January 2027, S&P said. CBA’s CET1 ratio was 12.3% as of December 2025.