Japan retail banking to hit $227b by 2033

Market revenue stood at $143.7b in 2024 with 5.2% annual growth projected.

Japan’s retail banking market generated revenue of $143.7b in 2024 and is projected to reach $226.6b by 2033, according to a Grand View Horizon research report 

The market is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% from 2025 to 2033.

Private sector banks were the largest revenue-generating segment in 2024. Public sector banks are forecast to record the fastest growth over the projection period.

Japan accounted for 7.0% of the global retail banking market by revenue in 2024. Globally, the United States is expected to lead the market in terms of revenue by 2033.

Within the Asia-Pacific region, China is projected to lead the regional retail banking market by revenue in 2033. China is also expected to be the fastest-growing market in the region, with revenue projected to reach $329.5b by 2033.

According to Fitch Ratings’ “Global Banks 2026 Outlook Compendium,” a divide is emerging between Asian banking giants. 

Japanese megabanks are poised for increased profitability in 2026, bolstered by rising domestic interest rates and steady credit growth. 

Conversely, China’s banking sector faces a "deteriorating" outlook. Fitch notes that persistent trade tensions and a weak property market continue to hamper China’s asset quality and overall business momentum.