CITIC Bank to maintain stable profits and capital but at risk from bad loans

Asset quality should remain stable in 2026 and even through mid-2027.

China CITIC Bank Corporation (CITIC Bank) is expected to maintain stable asset quality, capitalisation, profitability, and liquidity over the next 12-18 months, according to Moody’s Ratings.

CITIC Bank also has a very high probability of support from, and a very high dependence on, the government of China, the ratings agency said.

Risks include the formation of new non-performing loans (NPLs) because of what Fitch says are “unseasoned risks in financing domestic economic transition and rising asset risks from the retail loan book.”

“Nevertheless, we expect the bank's asset quality to remain stable over the next 12-18 months because of the strong buffers that it has built and its proactive de-risking efforts,” Fitch said in its ratings report of CITIC Bank published on 18 December 2025, where it affirmed the bank’s Baa2 deposit rating.

CITIC Bank’s loan loss reserves covered 204.2% of its NPLs as of 30 September 2025. Its NPL ratio, meanwhile, is at 1.16%, the same as in the beginning of 2025.

Capitalisation is expected to remain moderate over the next 12-18 months. CET1 capital adequacy ratio has declined to 9.59% as of September 2025, compared to 9.72% from year-end 2024, blamed on CITIC Bank’s dividend payout and increased risk-weighted asset (RWA) density.

Profitability is stable at 0.68%-0.70% from 2022 to the first half of 2025. It is expected to fall at around the 2024 level of 0.70% over the next 12-18 months.

Funding structure will remain moderate over the next 12-18 months, with somewhat reliance on less-stable funds, mitigated by ample liquidity to cover short-term cash outflows, Fitch said.

“That said, the bank has strengthened its retail deposit acquisition in recent years, with retail deposits representing 29% of total deposits at the end of June 2025, up from 25% at the end of 2022,” it added.

Liquidity coverage ratio is 127.6% as of 30 September 2025.