That is lower than October's CNY220b.
Maybank Kim Eng notes that according to mainland media, the big four mainland banks lent out CNY168b during Nov12, much lower than the CNY220b in Oct12. Traditionally big four banks represented around 35-40% of total new loans. Using this assumption, the total new loans in Nov12 would be around CNY420-480b, lower than the CNY500b in Oct12, and lower than the CNY550b consensus figure.
Here's more from Maybank Kim Eng:
For Jan-Oct12, mainland banks lent out an aggregate of CNY7.2t of new loans, 14% higher than the CNY6.3t in Jan-Oct11,
Oct12 M2 growth reached 14.1%, lower than the market consensus of 14.5%, but the rate is still slightly higher than PBOC’s target of 14% YoY.
Implication: Assuming CNY480b Nov12 new loans, the YoY loan growth at Nov12 would be 15.6%, still higher than the government’s target range of 14.6-15.5%.
Similarly, under this assumption, mainland banks would have lent out an aggregate of CNY7.7b of new loans during Jan-Nov12, 13% higher than the CNY6.8b during Jan-Nov11. The figure is also close to the low end of the government’s target of CNY8-8.5t for FY12.
China government may set its target for FY13 loan growth, new loan targets and M2 growth, during the upcoming (Dec12) Central Economic work Conference. We believe that the target new loans for FY13E would be CNY8.5-9.0t, slightly higher than FY12. But the target loan growth will be only 13.5-14.3%, lower than this year.
Do you know more about this story? Contact us anonymously through this link.